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Community information04/12/2010
Russia 2020, promovido por la iniciativa CGA scenarios de la Universidad de Nueva York, es el resultado final del trabajo prospectivo realizado por un grupo de expertos sobre la alternativas de futuro de Rusia en el horizonte 2020 en el marco del CGA Scenarios workshop celebrado el 26 de febrero de 2010.
Asi describen en la página web del CGA scenarios los resultados de este informe:
The CGA Scenarios workshop on Russia took place on February 26, 2010. The event assembled experts to develop plausible alternate futures for Russia, in hopes of broadening thinking and improving policy responses to potential changes in Russia’s domestic and foreign affairs. The output from this workshop, Russia 2020, was published in August 2010 and presents the following three alternate scenarios:
Scenario One: Working Authoritarianism
After a prolonged period of economic stagnation, Russia is forced to dramatically shift gears. Moscow rejects liberal-oriented economic solutions, steps that could lead to calls for more political openness. It ultimately manages to energize and diversify its economy without extensive liberalization by restructuring its energy sector and forging strategic commercial and financial alliances with China, Germany, and South Korea.
Scenario Two: Bottom-Up Liberalization & Modernization
A struggle for dominance between reformist and conservative elements results in
a stalemate, reducing the government’s ability to address economic challenges. Fueled by the dynamism of a new generation of entrepreneurs and capital from Moscow, new enterprises emerge in a number of Russia’s regions, symbolizing Russia’s economic rebirth and the beginning of political pluralism.
Scenario Three: Degeneration
The Russian government remains unable to solve the country’s deep economic and social problems and deflects alternative solutions that might weaken its grip on political power. The country continues to stagnate, forcing the regions to “fend for themselves.” Gradually, state capacity erodes, social fabric breaks down, and the country begins to fragment politically and geographically.
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