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Community information21/11/2010
China 2020, promovido por la iniciativa CGA scenarios de la Universidad de Nueva York, es el resultado final del trabajo realizado por un grupo de expertos sobre la alternativas de futuro de China.
The CGA Scenarios workshop on China took place on October 16, 2009. The event assembled experts to develop plausible alternate futures for China, in hopes of broadening thinking and improving policy responses to potential changes in China’s domestic and foreign affairs. The output from this workshop, China 2020, was published in February 2010 and presents the following three alternate scenarios:
Scenario One: Fragmentation
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faces escalating demands from a range of actors who have slowly chipped away at its legitimacy and capacity. When faced simultaneously with a major national disaster and an international crisis – during a time of power transition – the CCP is unable to respond effectively and its very survival is at risk.
Scenario Two: Strong State
Having engaged its best and brightest to successfully address the many challenges faced by China, the CCP remains highly autocratic, making extensive use of technology to improve government performance and suppress dissent. To safeguard its legitimacy, the CCP uses polling to continuously track public satisfaction with government policies and with the performance of senior party figures.
Scenario Three: Partial “Democracy”
Following several perceived failures of governance, the CCP is able to maintain a powerful position only by accommodating greater popular demand for openness and participation in shaping China’s political and economic agenda.
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